• 微博
  • 微信微信二维码

广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

【招商宏观】中国跨境资本流动形势的2017年回顾、2018年展望—跨境资本流动数据月报(2017.11)

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月22日 11:44:19
【字体:

分分彩注册就送18元平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ/微信【421618535】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。【招商宏观】中国跨境资本流动形势的2017年回顾、2018年展望—跨境资本流动数据月报(2017.11)

巴尔韦德:胜利是礼物 小白:皇马仍是争冠对手 落后14分!皇马终为昏招买单 卫冕西甲近乎无望 半场狂下三分雨北控复仇老冤家,马布里赛季第二高分再扮关键先生 苏神3轮4球伯纳乌完美复苏 5度破战舰堪称克星 大冷门!樊振东遭横扫连输2场惨败 国乒天才狂输德国回国称霸封王 伊斯科不满齐祖战术拒热身 玄学大师竟太过保守 德甲半程最佳阵容:拜仁3人 沙尔克带刀后卫上榜 英媒曝曼城天王与瓜帅决裂将离队 一顶级射手必加盟蓝月亮 换人背锅!C罗竟错失必进球 赛后直接进更衣室 德甲半程神奇之队:17国平民联军成客场龙 两数据仅逊拜仁 比特币涨跌,一定要看懂这个! 火箭必夺冠的五大理由,灯泡后场无解,用此奇招可破骑勇! 除了詹姆斯,湖人还在追这两大巨星,湖人得其一可安天下! 中国女排从低谷到崛起只用了1年!六年六冠王,根本不是梦 首届互联网高校辩论赛决赛在京落幕 中国人民大学夺冠

(11月)(代)(表)(零)(售)(的)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(供)(求)(状)(况)(指)(标)(的)(多)(项)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,资)(本)(小)(幅)(净)(流)(出)(,此)(前)(两)(个)(月)(小)(幅)(净)(流)(入)(。当)(月)(银)(行)(结)(售)(汇)(逆)(差)(497亿)(元)((10月)(为)(顺)(差)(183亿)(元)(,降)(幅)(680亿)(元)()。其)(中)(,自)(身)(结)(售)(汇)(逆)(差)(185亿)(元)(,代)(客)(结)(售)(汇)(逆)(差)(312亿)(元)((10月)(为)(顺)(差)(501亿)(元)(,下)(降)(813亿)(元)()。涉)(外)(收)(付)(款)(逆)(差)(851亿)(元)(,主)(要)(是)(以)(人)(民)(币)(方)(式)(流)(出)(758亿)(元)(。远)(期)(净)(售)(汇)(792亿)(元)((10月)(净)(售)(汇)(414亿)(元)()。
11月)(代)(表)(批)(发)(的)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(供)(求)(状)(况)(指)(标)(的)(数)(据)(出)(现)(背)(离)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(银)(行)(结)(售)(汇)(更)(真)(实)(。央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(小)(幅)(上)(升)(24亿)(元)(,较)(上)(月)(增)(加)(4亿)(元)(。不)(过)(,11月)(央)(行)(官)(方)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(增)(加)(101亿)(美)(元)(,汇)(率)(折)(算)(因)(素)(本)(月)(贡)(献)(163亿)(美)(元)(,资)(产)(估)(值)(的)(变)(动)(不)(大)(,因)(此)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(实)(际)(减)(少)(62亿)(美)(元)(,较)(上)(月)(下)(降)(214亿)(美)(元)(,这)(个)(趋)(势)(与)(银)(行)(结)(售)(汇)(等)(数)(据)(一)(
致)(。当)(前)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(不)(能)(真)(实)(反)(应)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(走)(势)(,符)(合)(我)(们)(此)(前)(判)(断)(,央)(行)(较)(少)(干)(预)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(,央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(维)(持)(在)(0附)(近)(波)(动)(,难)(以)(缓)(解)(“负)(债)(荒)(”的)(局)(面)(。
虽)(然)(11月)(贸)(易)(顺)(差)(扩)(大)(,但)(结)(售)(汇)(意)(愿)(的)(变)(化)(导)(致)(银)(行)(结)(售)(汇)(由)(顺)(转)(逆)(。购)(汇)(率)((居)(民)(和)(企)(业)(向)(银)(行)(买)(入)(外)(汇)(与)(客)(户)(涉)(外)(外)(汇)(支)(出)(之)(比)()从)(61.6%小)(幅)(上)(升)(至)(62.7%,是)(2017年)(的)(次)(低)(值)(;结)(汇)(率)((居)(民)(和)(企)(业)(向)(银)(行)(卖)(出)(外)(汇)(与)(客)(户)(涉)(外)(外)(汇)(收)(入)(之)(比)()小)(幅)(下)(降)(至)(61%,10月)(为)(62.9%。从)(结)(构)(来)(看)(,银)(行)(结)(售)(汇)(的)(下)(滑)(680亿)(元)(,主)(要)(是)(货)(物)(贸)(易)(项)(目)(1042亿)(元)(,较)(10月)(下)(降)(791亿)(元)(。远)(期)(净)(售)(汇)(规)(模)(上)(升)(,主)(要)(是)(购)(汇)(签)(约)(规)(模)(攀)(升)(,不)(过)(也)(仍)(未)(超)(过)(9月)(远)(期)(售)(汇)(业)(务)(所)(需)(提)(取)(的)(外)(汇)(风)(险)(准)(备)(金)(率)(调)(整)(时)(的)(高)(点)(。
资)(本)(流)(入)(的)(持)(续)(改)(善)(告)(一)(段)(落)(,不)(过)(国)(内)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(供)(求)(基)(本)(平)(衡)(的)(趋)(势)(未)(变)(,年)(内)(人)(民)(币)(兑)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(继)(续)(“双)(向)(波)(动)(”。
二)(、陆)(港)(通)(资)(本)(流)(动)(速)(览)(
11月)(北)(向)(资)(金)(持)(续)(流)(入)(,深)(股)(通)(流)(入)(多)(于)(沪)(股)(通)(。沪)(股)(通)(累)(计)(流)(入)(1080.7亿)(元)(,累)(计)(流)(出)(1031.3亿)(元)(,累)(计)(净)(流)(入)(仅)(49.3亿)(元)(;深)(股)(通)(累)(计)(流)(入)(849.8亿)(元)(,累)(计)(流)(出)(773.1亿)(元)(,累)(计)(净)(流)(入)(资)(金)(76.8亿)(元)(,超)(过)(沪)(股)(通)(累)(计)(净)(流)(入)(逾)(50%。陆)(股)(通)(合)(计)(净)(流)(入)(资)(金)(126.1亿)(元)(,日)(均)(净)(流)(入)(约)(5.73亿)(元)(。与)(今)(年)(前)(10月)(相)(比)(,11月)(份)(沪)(股)(通)(
结)(束)(了)(净)(流)(入)(连)(续)(两)(个)(月)(的)(下)(跌)(势)(头)(,有)(较)(大)(反)(弹)(;而)(自)(6月)(份)(以)(来)(深)(股)(通)(净)(流)(入)(总)(体)(持)(续)(下)(降)(的)(趋)(势)(得)(到)(延)(续)(。
11月)(南)(向)(资)(金)(流)(入)(规)(模)(持)(续)(上)(升)(,沪)(市)(港)(股)(通)(流)(入)(规)(模)(仍)(然)(大)(于)(深)(市)(港)(股)(通)(流)(入)(规)(模)(。沪)(市)(港)(股)(通)(累)(计)(流)(入)(1288亿)(港)(币)(,累)(计)(流)(出)(947.7亿)(港)(币)(,累)(计)(净)(流)(入)(340.3亿)(港)(币)(;深)(市)(港)(股)(通)(累)(计)(流)(入)(619亿)(港)(币)(,累)(计)(流)(出)(376亿)(港)(币)(,累)(计)(净)(流)(入)(243亿)(港)(币)(。从)(8月)(起)(,港)(股)(通)(流)(入)(规)(模)(持)(续)(上)(升)(。
2017年)(南)(向)(资)(金)(持)(续)(大)(规)(模)(流)(入)(,北)(向)(流)(入)(资)(金)(月)(度)(变)(动)(较)(大)(、规)(模)(较)(小)(,且)(受)(今)(年)(AH股)(溢)(价)(率)(走)(势)(影)(响)(。由)(于)(AH股)(溢)(价)(率)(已)(保)(持)(在)(较)(高)(水)(平)(,且)(有)(回)(升)(趋)(势)(,预)(计)(12宏)(观)(经)(济)(月)(份)(北)(向)(资)(金)(流)(入)(会)(再)(度)(减)(缓)(,南)(向)(资)(金)(维)(持)(大)(规)(模)(流)(入)(势)(头)(。
从)(陆)(港)(通)(看)(行)(业)(配)(置)(。根)(据)(每)(日)(前)(十)(大)(活)(跃)(成)(交)(个)(股)(数)(据)(,北)(向)(资)(金)(本)(月)(大)(幅)(流)(入)(银)(行)((平)(安)(银)(行)()、消)(费)(者)(服)(务)((中)(国)(国)(旅)()、耐)(用)(消)(费)(品)(与)(服)(装)((美)(的)(集)(团)(、格)(力)(电)(器)()、技)(术)(硬)(件)(与)(设)(备)((蓝)(思)(科)(技)()等)(行)(业)(,而)(大)(幅)(流)(出)(食)(品)(、饮)(料)(与)(烟)(草)(行)(业)((贵)(州)(茅)(台)(、伊)(利)(股)(份)(、五)(粮)(液)(、口)(子)(窖)()。南)(向)(资)(金)(集)(中)(流)(入)(银)(行)((工)(商)(银)(行)(、建)(设)(银)(行)(、汇)(丰)(控)(股)()、软)(件)(与)(服)(务)((腾)(讯)(控)(股)()、保)(险)((中)(国)(平)(安)(、中)(国)(太)(保)()、等)(行)(业)(,仅)(少)(数)(行)(业)(出)(现)(极)(小)(幅)(流)(出)(。
三)(、2017年)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(回)(顾)(与)(反)(思)(
2016年)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(下)(降)(2.9万)(亿)(元)(,在)(2016年)(末)(市)(场)(对)(2017年)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(形)(势)(和)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(非)(常)(悲)(观)(。而)(我)(们)(当)(时)(预)(判)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(的)(降)(幅)(接)(近)(6成)(,从)(-2.9万)(亿)(降)(至)(-1.2万)(亿)(。
我)(们)(预)(判)(的)(方)(向)(一)(致)(,幅)(度)(也)(基)(本)(一)(致)(。2017年)(前)(11个)(月)(,银)(行)(结)(售)(汇)(-8042亿)(元)(,相)(比)(2016年)(-22465亿)(元)(,如)(果)(是)(全)(年)(口)(径)(相)(比)(,两)(者)(降)(幅)(接)(近)(6成)(。正)(是)(对)(一)(些)(关)(键)(因)(素)(的)(预)(判)(,让)(我)(们)(把)(握)(住)(了)(2017年)(外)(汇)(供)(求)(弱)(平)(衡)(的)(趋)(势)(变)(化)(。当)(然)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(的)(超)(预)(期)(变)(化)(我)(们)(也)(在)(不)(断)(反)(思)(。
2017年)(5月)(开)(始)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(开)(始)(持)(续)(升)(值)(,市)(场)(对)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(由)(大)(幅)(下)(,转)(向)(看)(好)(显)(著)(增)(长)(。我)(们)(最)(早)(明)(确)(提)(示)(了)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(趋)(近)(于)(0的)(判)(断)(。关)(键)(在)(于)(认)(清)(外)(汇)(供)(求)(形)(势)(的)(改)(善)(和)(逆)(周)(期)(因)(子)(的)(引)(入)(使)(得)(央)(行)(减)(少)(常)(态)(式)(干)(预)(,避)(免)(投)(资)(者)(沿)(用)(过)(去)(:人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(-外)(汇)(占)(款)(余)(额)(回)(升)(-流)(动)(性)(改)(善)(的)(旧)(逻)(辑)(而)(错)(误)(加)(仓)(债)(市)(。
1、准)(确)(预)(判)(2017年)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(形)(势)(改)(善)(的)(四)(个)(要)(点)(:
在)(2016年)(末)(《回)(顾)(2016年)(、展)(望)(2017年)(-中)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(形)(势)(年)(度)(报)(告)(》中)(,我)(们)(当)(时)(认)(为)(有)(几)(点)(关)(键)(变)(化)(值)(得)(关)(注)(:
强)(美)(元)(是)(把)(双)(刃)(剑)(,美)(元)(阶)(段)(性)(走)(弱)(。意)(味)(着)(对)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(减)(弱)(。
基)(于)(战)(略)(的)(角)(度)(继)(续)(推)(动)(中)(国)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(改)(革)(开)(放)(。这)(将)(增)(加)(外)(汇)(供)(给)(,境)(外)(机)(构)(在)(国)(债)(市)(场)(中)(占)(比)(显)(著)(增)(加)(。
逆)(周)(期)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(政)(策)(,强)(化)(监)(管)(和)(严)(厉)(打)(击)(违)(法)(违)(规)(的)(套)(利)(行)(为)(。这)(将)(导)(致)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(主)(要)(以)(人)(民)(币)(方)(式)(流)(出)(的)(现)(象)(得)(到)(遏)(制)(。同)(时)(,对)(外)(投)(资)(管)(理)(的)(措)(施)(有)(效)(阻)(止)(少)(数)(大)(企)(业)(的)(无)(序)(对)(外)(投)(资)(和)(购)(汇)(行)(为)(。
企)(业)(外)(债)(去)(杠)(杆)(化)(进)(程)(基)(本)(结)(束)(。这)(将)(意)(味)(着)(企)(业)(购)(买)(外)(汇)(偿)(还)(负)(债)(的)(需)(求)(减)(弱)(。
强)(美)(元)(是)(把)(双)(刃)(剑)(,美)(元)(阶)(段)(性)(走)(弱)(。意)(味)(着)(对)(我)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(负)(面)(影)(响)(减)(弱)(。
基)(于)(战)(略)(的)(角)(度)(继)(续)(推)(动)(中)(国)(金)(融)(市)(场)(的)(改)(革)(开)(放)(。这)(将)(增)(加)(外)(汇)(供)(给)(,境)(外)(机)(构)(在)(国)(债)(市)(场)(中)(占)(比)(显)(著)(增)(加)(。
逆)(周)(期)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(政)(策)(,强)(化)(监)(管)(和)(严)(厉)(打)(击)(违)(法)(违)(规)(的)(套)(利)(行)(为)(。这)(将)(导)(致)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(主)(要)(以)(人)(民)(币)(方)(式)(流)(出)(的)(现)(象)(得)(到)(遏)(制)(。同)(时)(,对)(外)(投)(资)(管)(理)(的)(措)(施)(有)(效)(阻)(止)(少)(数)(大)(企)(业)(的)(无)(序)(对)(外)(投)(资)(和)(购)(汇)(行)(为)(。
企)(业)(外)(债)(去)(杠)(杆)(化)(进)(程)(基)(本)(结)(束)(。这)(将)(意)(味)(着)(企)(业)(购)(买)(外)(汇)(偿)(还)(负)(债)(的)(需)(求)(减)(弱)(。
正)(是)(这)(些)(关)(键)(因)(素)(的)(预)(判)(,让)(我)(们)(把)(握)(住)(了)(2017年)(外)(汇)(供)(求)(弱)(平)(衡)(的)(趋)(势)(变)(化)(。2017年)(这)(些)(因)(素)(表)(现)(如)(下)(:
美)(元)(指)(数)(的)(弱)(势)(波)(动)(。从)(2017年)(初)(的)(103高)(点)(降)(至)(9月)(初)(最)(低)(时)(在)(91附)(近)(。分)(化)(的)(强)(势)(美)(元)(的)(预)(期)(,今)(年)(所)(有)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(入)(均)(有)(不)(同)(程)(度)(的)(回)(升)(,货)(币)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(减)(轻)(。
境)(外)(机)(构)(在)(我)(国)(债)(券)(市)(场)(中)(的)(占)(比)(也)(有)(所)(提)(高)(。2017年)(10月)(在)(国)(债)(市)(场)(中)(的)(占)(比)(已)(创)(下)(历)(史)(新)(高)(4.71%,但)(这)(一)(水)(平)(即)(便)(相)(较)(日)(本)(10%的)(国)(际)(较)(低)(水)(平)(仍)(有)(很)(大)(的)(提)(升)(空)(间)(。
美)(元)(指)(数)(的)(弱)(势)(波)(动)(。从)(2017年)(初)(的)(103高)(点)(降)(至)(9月)(初)(最)(低)(时)(在)(91附)(近)(。分)(化)(的)(强)(势)(美)(元)(的)(预)(期)(,今)(年)(所)(有)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(入)(均)(有)(不)(同)(程)(度)(的)(回)(升)(,货)(币)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(减)(轻)(。
境)(外)(机)(构)(在)(我)(国)(债)(券)(市)(场)(中)(的)(占)(比)(也)(有)(所)(提)(高)(。2017年)(10月)(在)(国)(债)(市)(场)(中)(的)(占)(比)(已)(创)(下)(历)(史)(新)(高)(4.71%,但)(这)(一)(水)(平)(即)(便)(相)(较)(日)(本)(10%的)(国)(际)(较)(低)(水)(平)(仍)(有)(很)(大)(的)(提)(升)(空)(间)(。
对)(外)(直)(接)(投)(资)(成)(为)(资)(本)(外)(流)(第)(一)(大)(项)(的)(现)(象)(得)(到)(逆)(转)(,这)(部)(分)(外)(汇)(需)(求)(减)(弱)(。2017年)(前)(11个)(月)(商)(务)(部)(公)(布)(的)(非)(金)(融)(类)(对)(外)(直)(接)(投)(资)(规)(模)(为)(1075亿)(元)(,远)(低)(于)(去)(年)(同)(期)(1617亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(速)(由)(去)(年)(44%降)(至)(-34%。
对)(外)(直)(接)(投)(资)(成)(为)(资)(本)(外)(流)(第)(一)(大)(项)(的)(现)(象)(得)(到)(逆)(转)(,这)(部)(分)(外)(汇)(需)(求)(减)(弱)(。2017年)(前)(11个)(月)(商)(务)(部)(公)(布)(的)(非)(金)(融)(类)(对)(外)(直)(接)(投)(资)(规)(模)(为)(1075亿)(元)(,远)(低)(于)(去)(年)(同)(期)(1617亿)(元)(,同)(比)(增)(速)(由)(去)(年)(44%降)(至)(-34%。
非)(居)(民)(偿)(还)(负)(债)(的)(购)(汇)(进)(程)(结)(束)(。比)(如)(,2015年)(和)(2016年)(外)(汇)(主)(要)(需)(求)(来)(自)(与)(偿)(还)(负)(债)(有)(关)(的)(“其)(他)(投)(资)(”,分)(别)(为)(逆)(差)(4791亿)(美)(元)(和)(3035亿)(美)(元)(,2017年)(上)(半)(年)(已)(转)(为)(顺)(差)(732亿)(美)(元)(。
非)(居)(民)(偿)(还)(负)(债)(的)(购)(汇)(进)(程)(结)(束)(。比)(如)(,2015年)(和)(2016年)(外)(汇)(主)(要)(需)(求)(来)(自)(与)(偿)(还)(负)(债)(有)(关)(的)(“其)(他)(投)(资)(”,分)(别)(为)(逆)(差)(4791亿)(美)(元)(和)(3035亿)(美)(元)(,2017年)(上)(半)(年)(已)(转)(为)(顺)(差)(732亿)(美)(元)(。
2、2017年)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(形)(势)(中)(值)(得)(关)(注)(的)(四)(个)(新)(动)(向)(:
1)人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(双)(向)(波)(动)(、幅)(度)(加)(大)(
2017年)(5月)(人)(民)(币)(中)(间)(价)(机)(制)(由)(两)(因)(素)(变)(为)(三)(因)(素)(模)(型)(,“收)(盘)(价)(+一)(篮)(子)(货)(币)(汇)(率)(变)(化)(+逆)(周)(期)(因)(子)(”。引)(入)(逆)(周)(期)(因)(子)(因)(素)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(该)(因)(素)(主)(要)(目)(的)(是)(加)(大)(汇)(率)(的)(双)(向)(波)(动)(,不)(改)(变)(汇)(率)(走)(势)(的)(方)(向)(。“引)(入)(逆)(周)(期)(因)(子)(的)(中)(间)(价)(报)(价)(模)(型)(适)(当)(加)(大)(了)(参)(考)(篮)(子)(的)(权)(重)(”,逆)(周)(期)(因)(子)(在)(美)(元)(走)(强)(时)(同)(样)(带)(动)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(走)(弱)(,因)(而)(加)(大)(汇)(率)(的)(双)(向)(
波)(动)(,并)(且)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(更)(加)(贴)(近)(篮)(子)(货)(币)(的)(变)(动)(,实)(现)(CFETS人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(指)(数)(的)(稳)(定)(。
逆)(周)(期)(因)(子)(的)(背)(后)(,其)(实)(要)(进)(一)(步)(讨)(论)(的)(是)(央)(行)(对)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(的)(态)(度)(。主)(要)(是)(三)(个)(方)(面)(:一)(是)(,不)(试)(图)(逆)(转)(市)(场)(的)(大)(趋)(势)(;二)(是)(,当)(市)(场)(出)(现)(恐)(慌)(和)(市)(场)(失)(灵)(的)(时)(候)(,通)(过)(干)(预)(等)(多)(种)(方)(式)(来)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(,恢)(复)(市)(场)(运)(行)(。三)(是)(,当)(前)(的)(条)(件)(下)(,央)(行)(倾)(向)(于)(“阻)(贬)(不)(阻)(升)(”,即)(在)(汇)(率)(有)(比)(较)(大)(贬)(值)(压)(力)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,出)(手)(稳)(定)(市)(场)(;在)(汇)(率)(有)(升)(值)(压)(力)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,比)(较)(放)(任)(汇)(率)(的)(回)(升)(,“让)(事)(实)(来)(说)(话)(”,以)(有)(效)(分)(化)(市)(场)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(。
2)逆)(周)(期)(的)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(政)(策)(中)(,过)(分)(抑)(制)(外)(汇)(需)(求)(的)(措)(施)(开)(始)(逐)(步)(弱)(化)(
以)(人)(民)(币)(方)(式)(的)(资)(本)(外)(流)(显)(著)(减)(弱)(。人)(民)(币)(对)(外)(净)(支)(付)(从)(2016年)(下)(半)(年)(月)(均)(是)(1863亿)(元)(,降)(至)(2017年)(前)(11个)(月)(均)(634亿)(元)(。路)(透)(中)(文)(报)(道)(3月)(央)(行)(适)(当)(放)(松)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(监)(管)(,人)(民)(币)(跨)(境)(收)(付)(1:1限)(制)(不)(再)(严)(格)(执)(行)(,即)(此)(后)(各)(家)(银)(行)(人)(民)(币)(的)(跨)(境)(流)(动)(可)(以)(出)(现)(负)(头)(寸)(。具)(体)(请)(参)(见)(《谈)(谈)(人)(民)(币)(对)(外)(净)(支)(付)(的)(新)(变)(化)(-2017年)(3月)(中)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(数)(据)(点)(评)(》。
打)(击)(投)(机)(购)(汇)(行)(为)(的)(外)(汇)(风)(险)(准)(备)(金)(率)(降)(至)(0。2017年)(9月)(8日)(,央)(行)(下)(发)(《中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(关)(于)(调)(整)(外)(汇)(风)(险)(准)(备)(金)(政)(策)(的)(通)(知)(》(银)(发)([2017]207号)(),将)(境)(内)(金)(融)(机)(构)(代)(客)(远)(期)(售)(汇)(业)(务)(所)(需)(提)(取)(的)(外)(汇)(风)(险)(准)(备)(金)(率)(从)(20%调)(整)(为)(0%。提)(高)(外)(汇)(风)(险)(准)(备)(金)(是)(811汇)(改)(之)(后)(,推)(出)(的)(第)(一)(个)(针)(对)(投)(机)(性)(购)(汇)(行)(为)(的)(逆)(周)(期)(外)(汇)(管)(理)(政)(策)(,是)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(最)(强)(时)(推)(出)(的)(,这)(个)(政)(策)(的)(取)(消)(也)(印)(证)(了)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(供)(求)(弱)(均)(衡)(、人)(民)(币)(单)(边)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(改)(善)(。外)(管)(政)(策)(减)(少)(对)(购)(汇)(力)(量)(的)(约)(束)(,购)(汇)(力)(量)(在)(短)(暂)(的)(爆)(发)(之)(后)(,逐)(渐)(恢)(复)(,并)(未)(出)(现)(无)(序)(增)(长)(。具)(体)(请)(参)(见)(《人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(将)(重)(回)(双)(向)(波)(动)(-2017年)(8月)(中)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(数)(据)(点)(评)(》。
3)海)(外)(资)(金)(对)(国)(内)(资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(影)(响)(力)(上)(升)(
海)(外)(资)(金)(是)(2017年)(权)(益)(市)(场)(主)(要)(增)(量)(资)(金)(来)(源)(,海)(外)(资)(金)(投)(资)(风)(格)(对)(今)(年)(的)(结)(构)(性)(行)(情)(具)(有)(显)(著)(影)(响)(。2017年)(A股)(市)(场)(呈)(“二)(八)(行)(情)(”,仅)(有)(20%的)(股)(票)(上)(涨)(,80%的)(股)(票)(下)(跌)(。根)(据)(我)(们)(的)(测)(算)(,前)(11个)(月)(海)(外)(资)(金)(净)(流)(入)(A股)(金)(额)(为)(2923亿)(元)(,是)(市)(场)(中)(最)(大)(的)(一)(个)(增)(量)(资)(金)(。具)(体)(请)(参)(见)(《谁)(财)(大)(?谁)(气)(粗)(?-A股)(市)(场)(风)(格)(转)(换)(背)(后)(的)(资)(金)(面)(因)(素)(--全)(球)(视)(野)(评)(估)(中)(国)(资)(产)(系)(列)(报)(告)(之)(一)(》。
从)(全)(球)(资)(本)(流)(向)(和)(中)(国)(资)(本)(市)(场)(开)(放)(的)(制)(度)(红)(利)(的)(角)(度)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(2018年)(海)(外)(资)(本)(流)(入)(国)(内)(权)(益)(市)(场)(也)(同)(样)(趋)(势)(未)(变)(。展)(望)(2018年)(,明)(年)(6月)(A股)(将)(纳)(入)(MSCI将)(进)(一)(步)(推)(动)(境)(外)(资)(金)(增)(持)(A股)(规)(模)(。据)(我)(们)(测)(算)(,初)(步)(按)(5%比)(例)(纳)(入)(,A股)(资)(金)(流)(入)(规)(模)(约)(为)(230亿)(美)(元)(,约)(合)(1500亿)(人)(民)(币)(。未)(来)(如)(果)(逐)(步)(100%纳)(入)(,资)(金)(流)(入)(规)(模)(将)(累)(计)(达)(到)(3970万)(亿)(美)(元)(,约)(合)(2.6万)(亿)(人)(民)(币)(。具)(体)(请)(参)(见)(《加)(入)(MSCI是)(A股)(的)(救)(兵)(吗)(?——评)(A股)(纳)(入)(MSCI指)(数)(的)(潜)(在)(影)(响)(》。
4)告)(别)(常)(态)(式)(干)(预)(,“央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(”趋)(近)(于)(0
我)(们)(最)(早)(明)(确)(提)(示)(了)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(趋)(近)(于)(0的)(判)(断)(,避)(免)(投)(资)(者)(沿)(用)(过)(去)(:人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(-外)(汇)(占)(款)(余)(额)(回)(升)(-流)(动)(性)(改)(善)(的)(旧)(逻)(辑)(而)(错)(误)(加)(仓)(债)(市)(。从)(2017年)(2月)(央)(行)(对)(汇)(市)(的)(干)(预)(开)(始)(不)(断)(减)(弱)(,2017年)(前)(11月)(央)(行)(对)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(-4273亿)(元)(,如)(果)(扣)(除)(1月)(,央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(为)(-2186亿)(元)(。我)(们)(在)(《央)(行)(外)(占)(再)(次)(进)(入)(低)(速)(波)(动)(——2017年)(4月)(中)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(数)(据)(点)(评)(》提)(示)(了)(这)(一)(变)(化)(,在)(《外)(汇)(占)(款)(真)(的)(在)(回)(升)(吗)(?——2017年)(6月)(中)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(数)(据)(点)(评)(》此)(后)(的)(多)(篇)(报)(告)(中)(提)(示)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(进)(入)(低)(速)(增)(长)(,在)(“0”附)(近)(波)(动)(,难)(以)(补)(充)(流)(动)(性)(,缓)(解)(“负)(债)(荒)(”。
央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(波)(幅)(减)(弱)(,在)(“0”附)(近)(波)(动)(。过)(去)(央)(行)(持)(续)(干)(预)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(,造)(成)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(和)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(同)(向)(波)(动)(。2017年)(随)(着)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(供)(求)(趋)(向)(平)(衡)(,央)(行)(逐)(步)(退)(出)(汇)(市)(干)(预)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(独)(立)(性)(进)(一)(步)(提)(高)(。
随)(着)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(在)(0附)(近)(波)(动)(,这)(也)(意)(味)(着)(美)(联)(储)(缩)(表)(对)(中)(国)(央)(行)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(的)(影)(响)(弱)(化)(。此)(前)(中)(国)(央)(行)(总)(资)(产)(快)(速)(扩)(张)(时)(期)(与)(美)(联)(储)(四)(轮)(QE的)(时)(间)(高)(度)(一)(致)(,最)(重)(要)(的)(传)(导)(渠)(道)(是)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(。未)(来)(美)(联)(储)(缩)(表)(更)(可)(能)(通)(过)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(等)(资)(产)(价)(格)(的)(波)(动)(来)(体)(现)(,进)(而)(对)(跨)(境)(资)(金)(产)(生)(负)(面)(影)(响)(。请)(参)(见)(《央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(低)(增)(的)(原)(因)(及)(影)(响)(-中)(国)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(数)(据)(月)(报)(2017年)(9月)(》。
四)(、2018年)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(展)(望)(
欧)(美)(经)(济)(和)(货)(币)(政)(策)(的)(同)(方)(向)(、美)(国)(税)(改)(等)(财)(政)(政)(策)(将)(低)(于)(最)(初)(的)(预)(期)(决)(定)(了)(美)(元)(指)(数)(无)(法)(再)(现)(曾)(经)(“气)(势)(如)(虹)(”的)(单)(边)(升)(值)(,也)(难)(以)(达)(到)(103的)(前)(期)(高)(点)(。预)(计)(2018年)(美)(元)(指)(数)(整)(体)(将)(在)((90,100)的)(区)(间)(内)(震)(荡)(,在)(此)(条)(件)(下)(,预)(判)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(2018年)(在)((6.45,6.95)的)(区)(间)(内)(波)(动)(。
预)(计)(2018年)(跨)(境)(资)(本)(流)(动)(仍)(会)(小)(幅)(净)(流)(出)(,全)(年)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(余)(额)(下)(降)(3000亿)(元)(左)(右)(。从)(国)(际)(因)(素)(来)(看)(,经)(过)(次)(贷)(危)(机)(后)(的)(调)(整)(,全)(球)(系)(统)(性)(风)(险)(呈)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(,全)(球)(经)(济)(体)(的)(经)(济)(增)(长)(动)(能)(正)(在)(逐)(步)(恢)(复)(,货)(币)(政)(策)(转)(趋)(保)(守)(,但)(步)(调)(缓)(慢)(。我)(们)(认)(为)(,包)(括)(中)(国)(在)(内)(的)(新)(兴)(市)(场)(,国)(际)(资)(本)(持)(续)(流)(入)(趋)(势)(未)(变)(,特)(朗)(普)(税)(改)(也)(并)(未)(改)(变)(这)(个)(大)(趋)(势)(。证)(券)(市)(场)(开)(放)(的)(制)(度)(性)(红)(利)(,也)(将)(带)(来)(比)(较)(稳)(定)(的)(国)(际)(配)(置)(资)(金)(流)(入)(改)(变)(证)(券)(投)(资)(项)(逆)(差)(的)(局)(面)(。从)(国)(内)(因)(素)(来)(看)(,企)(业)(偿)(还)(负)(债)(的)(购)(汇)(进)(程)(结)(束)(,居)(民)(的)(购)(汇)(预)(期)(稳)(定)(,机)(构)(对)(外)(投)(资)(的)(行)(为)(仍)(受)(监)(管)(约)(束)(。不)(过)(考)(虑)(到)(,中)(国)(居)(民)(和)(企)(业)(仍)(有)(配)(置)(海)(外)(资)(产)(的)(需)(求)(,以)(及)(此)(前)(过)(分)(抑)(制)(购)(汇)(需)(求)(的)(外)(管)(政)(策)(逐)(步)(放)(松)(,跨)(境)(资)(本)(仍)(有)(外)(流)(压)(力)(,但)(规)(模)(可)(控)(。具)(体)(请)(参)(见)(《特)(朗)(普)(税)(改)(对)(中)(国)(国)(际)(资)(本)(流)(动)(的)(直)(接)(和)(间)(接)(影)(响)(-轩)(言)(数)(语)(系)(列)(报)(告)(》。
央)(行)(干)(预)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(与)(否)(是)(央)(行)(外)(汇)(占)(款)(能)(否)(持)(续)(变)(化)(的)(关)(键)(。未)(来)(的)(一)(年)(,央)(行)(需)(要)(投)(放)(外)(汇)(阻)(止)(人)(民)(币)(明)(显)(贬)(值)(的)(可)(能)(性)(仍)(然)(存)(在)(,外)(汇)(占)(款)(在)(部)(分)(月)(份)(会)(出)(现)(千)(亿)(规)(模)(负)(增)(长)(;但)(央)(行)(重)(新)(为)(防)(止)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(大)(幅)(升)(值)(而)(买)(入)(外)(汇)(投)(放)(人)(民)(币)(的)(可)(能)(性)(小)(,外)(汇)(占)(款)(不)(会)(出)(现)(持)(续)(显)(著)(的)(正)(增)(长)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
)


相关文章

版权所有:南方新闻网 粤ICP备05070829 网站标识码4400000131
主办:南方新闻网 协办:广东省经济和信息化委员会 承办:南方新闻网
建议使用1024×768分辨率 IE7.0以上版本浏览器