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地产投资“警报”长鸣

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2020年01月22日 11:43:50
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(  投)(资)(被)(视)(为)(中)(国)(经)(济)(发)(展)(主)(引)(擎)(,其)(中)(,房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(是)(龙)(头)(,但)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(连)(续)(6个)(月)(下)(滑)(,使)(市)(场)(对)(经)(济)(增)(长)(的)(预)(期)(恶)(化)(。“中)(国)(房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(结)(构)(性)(调)(整)(会)(在)(今)(年)(四)(季)(度)(和)(2015年)(给)(经)(济)(带)(来)(越)(来)(越)(大)(的)(拖)(累)(。”瑞)(银)(特)(约)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(汪)(涛)(认)(为)(。  在)(国)(家)(信)(息)(中)(心)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(范)(剑)(平)(看)(来)(,未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(会)(进)(一)(步)(下)(滑)(,预)(计)(今)(年)(全)(年)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(增)(速)(将)(从)(去)(年)(的)(20%降)(到)(10%左)(右)(。  中)(金)(公)(司)(报)(告)(提)(出)(,房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(价)(跌)(量)(缩)(,维)(持)(调)(整)(态)(势)(,一)(线)(城)(市)(限)(购)(政)(策)(难)(有)(明)(显)(松)(动)(,未)(来)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(的)(下)(行)(压)(力)(仍)(然)(较)(大)(。房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(不)(景)(气)(,加)(剧)(了)(投)(资)(品)(行)(业)(的)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(矛)(盾)(,也)(拖)(累)(制)(造)(业)(投)(资)(增)(速)(大)(幅)(下)(滑)(。向)(前)(看)(,房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(调)(整)(不)(可)(避)(免)(带)(来)(土)(地)(财)(政)(的)(紧)(缩)(,影)(子)(银)(行)(再)(度)(受)(到)(监)(管)(的)(制)(约)(,基)(础)(设)(施)(投)(资)(的)(资)(金)(来)(源)(存)(在)(较)(大)(压)(力)(,目)(前)(的)(高)(增)(速)(存)(在)(放)(缓)(风)(险)(。房)(地)(产)(市)(场)(持)(续)(调)(整)(,也)(增)(加)(了)(金)(融)(机)(构)(惜)(贷)(的)(风)(险)(。如)(果)(社)(会)(融)(资)(总)(量)(增)(速)(继)(续)(下)(滑)(,则)(容)(易)(与)(房)(地)(产)(的)(调)(整)(相)(互)(强)(化)(,形)(成)(需)(求)(下)(降)(-房)(价)(下)(跌)(-信)(用)(紧)(缩)(-需)(求)(下)(降)(的)(循)(环)(,造)(成)(较)(大)(的)(去)(杠)(杆)(压)(力)(。  汪)(涛)(认)(为)(,考)(虑)(到)(房)(地)(产)(行)(业)(的)(重)(要)(性)(及)(与)(其)(他)(经)(济)(部)(门)(千)(丝)(万)(缕)(的)(联)(系)(,房)(地)(产)(活)(动)(持)(续)(下)(滑)(可)(能)(会)(进)(一)(步)(加)(剧)(很)(多)(重)(工)(业)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(问)(题)(,从)(而)(进)(一)(步)(削)(弱)(企)(业)(收)(入)(增)(长)(和)(现)(金)(流)(、打)(击)(投)(资)(意)(愿)(。她)(还)(指)(出)(,目)(前)(微)(刺)(激)(措)(施)(可)(能)(不)(足)(以)(抵)(消)(房)(地)(产)(下)(滑)(对)(经)(济)(的)(拖)(累)(,到)(今)(年)(年)(底)(增)(长)(可)(能)(会)(再)(度)(面)(临)(明)(显)(的)(下)(行)(压)(力)(,决)(策)(层)(将)(进)(一)(步)(加)(码)(稳)(增)(长)(措)(施)(。“在)(这)(一)(背)(景)(下)(,我)(们)(预)(计)(2015年)(GDP同)(比)(增)(长)(6.8%。不)(过)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(有)(15%的)(概)(率)(出)(现)(增)(速)(大)(幅)(滑)(坡)(至)(5%以)(上)(的)(风)(险)(。”  民)(生)(证)(券)(研)(究)(院)(副)(院)(长)(管)(清)(友)(说)(,7月)(中)(旬)(以)(来)(,随)(着)(地)(方)(政)(府)(放)(松)(限)(购)(的)(行)(动)(不)(断)(升)(级)(,房)(地)(产)(销)(售)(的)(确)(出)(现)(了)(一)(些)(回)(暖)(迹)(象)(,但)(效)(果)(并)(不)(明)(显)(。从)(购)(房)(者)(的)(角)(度)(看)(,房)(贷)(环)(境)(仍)(偏)(紧)(,二)(季)(度)(个)(人)(住)(房)(贷)(款)(利)(率)(从)(6.7%进)(一)(步)(攀)(升)(至)(6.93%,刚)(需)(和)(投)(机)(性)(需)(求)(都)(会)(受)(到)(抑)(制)(。从)(地)(产)(商)(的)(角)(度)(看)(,压)(力)(同)(样)(有)(增)(无)(减)(。一)(是)(库)(存)(压)(力)(,未)(来)(去)(库)(存)(可)(能)(要)(持)(续)(数)(年)(,随)(之)(而)(来)(的)(是)(投)(资)(下)(行)(;二)(是)(融)(资)(压)(力)(,非)(标)(收)(紧)(、银)(行)(对)(地)(产)(项)(目)(愈)(发)(谨)(慎)(,短)(期)(内)(地)(产)(融)(资)(仍)(不)(容)(乐)(观)(。如)(果)(政)(策)(维)(持)(目)(前)(状)(态)(,年)(内)(房)(地)(产)(难)(言)(改)(观)(,这)(将)(对)(上)(游)(制)(造)(业)(、地)(方)(财)(政)(收)(入)(、相)(关)(产)(业)(链)(消)(费)(等)(造)(成)(直)(接)(冲)(击)(,拖)(累)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(。
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